International weather agencies have predicted an El Nino event in the second half of 2017

According to latest updates from US state agency NOAA and its funded institutions this week, gives a 50-55% chance of an El Nino forming from July onwards. The indication comes on the back of similar computer-model forecasts released by the India Meteorological Department as well as weather agencies of Australia, Europe and Japan over the past month or so.

El Nino is an abnormal warming of the ocean surface in central and eastern equatorial Pacific which alters weather patterns in many parts of the globe. In India, it’s usually associated with weak monsoons. The last four El Nino events – in 2015, 2009, 2004 and 2002 – had led to poor monsoons and drought in the country.

However, these are early days yet for monsoon season projections. Climate-model forecasts for El Nino, or its mirror opposite La Nina, in February-April typically suffer from what meteorologists call the ‘spring predictability barrier’ – a lull in forecasting accuracy during this period. IMD’s El Nino-La Nina update last month had given a more than 65% probability of neutral conditions continuing in the Pacific till around July.